On a slightly more mundane level, today’s New York Times Magazine [link] has a thought-provoking analysis of what has happened to Washington, D.C. over the last several years. It has (benefited?) from an influx of precisely the bright young techies and entrepreneurs that our current city promoters seem to be hoping for, with a concurrent flush of elevated real estate prices and coffee shops. There are some predictions. It is worth reading.

The broad market downturn that will ensue this coming week (or very soon thereafter) will go on for a year or more, followed by an extensive depression. Our community leaders are wholly unprepared for this.

Fortunately, some individual community members have been preparing for this inevitability–paying off debt, protecting personal assets by exiting the financial markets in favor of dollars held in safe local banks and local investments, increasing productive capacity for food and other essentials, and sharing skills that will make this long-term challenge more positive for our neighborhoods, businesses, and community as a whole.

As Steve Kunselman notes, Ann Arbor wasn’t immune to the mortgage crisis, and it won’t be immune to the effects of the coming stock market declines and subsequent economic impacts that will dwarf the downturns of 2000 and 2008. The new jobs that some anticipate might still materialize, but they will not likely last, and many others will be lost. Property values will again decline and tax revenues along with them.

“Maybe it’s not as big a change as from people from war into the baby boom generation, but it’s a significant change.”

It will be a change on a similar scale–in the opposite direction. (And it could very well lead once again to extensive wars.)

In Elliot Wave Principle terms, this is the Grand Supercycle scale wave 4 correction of the past century’s wave 3 economic growth and prosperity explosion. The crash of 1929 and the Great Depression were wave 4 of the Supercycle (one level lower) scale. This correction, in both market and economic terms, will likely return to the levels of that wave, as almost all 4th waves have in the past several hundred years of market history.

Our council members would serve us well to protect community assets, including those funds set aside for public employee retirements. They are currently at risk in stocks, bonds (which will experience widespread defaults down the road), MBSs, and other financial instruments. Fortunately, our level of public debt is not as high as it might be.

As a candidate for mayor several years ago, I referred to this possibility. My confidence in the markets as reflecting social mood and the cycles of that mood is even stronger today, as is my confidence that we are indeed at the precipice I’ve described.

I encourage Chronicle readers and other community members to take this seriously and act decisively and, of course, calmly–you have some time, and resources are available. The Automatic Earth web site [link] has been covering these unfolding events (most recently the developments in Europe) and has a “Primers” section of articles that can be helpful.

Regarding Ms. Petersen’s response, I would’ve personally preferred some more in-depth comments, for my part as a resident of Ward 2. I see this article as a great reference going forward, not only to consider the personalities of the council members but also to remind them of what they said at this meeting, and see whether they are still living these values. The brevity of Ms. Petersen’s response reduces the value of this piece as that reference, at least for me as one whom she is representing.

The ‘art’ problem.

Guessing some Council members probably feel the need to run their ‘statements’ by an attorney first these days before uttering them aloud.

And Sally Petersen isn’t the problem on Council. She’s going to be an outstanding member in the months and years to come. Lords knows we could easy put together a Wit and Wisdom of John Hieftje collection from all his half baked silly pronouncements over the past decade.

I appreciate your response here, and the value of levity. And as Jack suggests, mere length doesn’t mean that comments have substance, so I probably erred in singling you out. It’s just that–as a member of the public, admittedly perhaps not really your primary audience in this meeting–your comments don’t give me much to go on, and instead come across as glib. Even “fiscal responsibility” is kind of a no-brainer; no one is going to argue for fiscal profligacy, and everyone defines responsibility in their own way. I just wish there had been more specifics about how your (or whoever’s) values actually come into play in this particular place and time.

At any rate, thanks for listening and responding.

My attempt at levity also seems to have fallen flat. Although I was hoping people would appreciate the value of fiscal responsibility that is outlet shopping!

So I tried to take a different approach, and it evidently it didn’t work out so well. In retrospect, I wish I had said more about my Dad’s influence on my life growing up, and his ability to balance the political and spiritual as an Episcopal Priest. He has had a profound effect on my life in my adulthood. Had I gone into more detail here, I would have ended up in a puddle. Next time I’ll take the risk.

Thanks for the feedback!

Sally Petersen