John U. Bacon

Moments before the Michigan Wolverines introduced Brady Hoke as their new head football coach in 2011, Michigan fans had lots of questions. Why not hire a national star like Les Miles or Jim Harbaugh, who both played at Michigan? Who was Brady Hoke? Was he up to the task of taking over the Wolverines, and returning the team to glory?

Hoke answered these questions by nailing his first press conference. He won over more Michigan fans in just a few minutes than his predecessor, Rich Rodriguez, had been able to capture in three years, for a variety of reasons. When a reporter asked Hoke if the Wolverines would be rebuilding in his first season, he famously replied, “This is Michigan, for godsakes” – and a star was born.

It’s hard to remember a happier honeymoon than Hoke’s. In his rookie season, the Wolverines beat Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State – the latter for the first time in eight years. They won their first BCS bowl game since a young man named Tom Brady did the job in 2000, en route to an 11-2 record. From the fans in the stands to the team in the trenches, the love for Coach Hoke was universal.

But then a great senior class graduated, the schedule got tougher, and Michigan’s amazing luck finally ran out. Hoke’s second team went 8-5, but most fans gave Hoke a pass, and I believe rightly so.

But the Wolverines don’t look much better this year, and might even be worse.

The Wolverines narrowly escaped losing to the lowly Akron Zips – which might have topped Michigan’s historic upset at the hands of Appalachian State. Then they barely slipped past a bad Connecticut team – which fired their coach shortly thereafter – before finally losing to a Penn State squad so hampered by sanctions, including a drastic reduction of scholarships, it was playing with one hand tied behind its back.

Still, the Wolverines were 6-1 – until last weekend. The final score said Michigan State 29, Michigan 6, but the Spartans did a lot more damage than that. They swarmed Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner all day, sacking him seven times, and held Michigan to minus-48 yards rushing. Yes, that’s right: Michigan would have been better off not running a play at all than trying to run the ball.

The Spartans are now 8-1, and playing for a Big Ten title. The Wolverines are 6-2, and playing to keep their fans on the bandwagon. It’s not the two losses that have Wolverine fans worried. It’s that the team is not getting better. Instead of looking sharp and strong – Michigan trademarks – they look sloppy and soft, and seemingly more so every week.

To Michigan fans’ credit, only the lunatic fringe is calling for Hoke’s head. His two great recruiting classes have barely reached the field, and even hinting that the coach is in trouble could scare off the next class of recruits. Further, if Michigan fires two consecutive coaches after three years, the place starts to look like a revolving door that no credible coaching candidate would even consider.

A more concrete problem is next year’s home schedule, which might be the worst in Michigan history. Instead of being served traditional rivals like Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State, Michigan fans will be treated to Miami of Ohio, new Big Ten member Maryland, and yes, Appalachian State, for reasons only the athletic director must know.

Well, the schedule might be down, but the prices are sky high! Taking in a Michigan football game for a family of four – without restaurants or hotels – can easily top a thousand bucks, the rough equivalent of two days at DisneyWorld.

Michigan’s bean counters are worried that thousands of fans, already pushed to the limit, might finally drop their tickets. That could break Michigan’s 38-year streak of 100,000-plus crowds. A few more losses on the field in the remaining four games – none of them easy – certainly wouldn’t help.

Last year, I wrote, “It won’t be fair to judge Hoke until his recruits become his players, and that takes a few years. By then, fans will either find Hoke’s coaching style charming or cheesy, depending on one just thing: the number of games he wins.”

Former coach Bo Schembechler used to say: every day, you get better, or you get worse. If the Wolverines get better, the wins will take care of themselves over time, and all will be right in Arborville. If they don’t, no one can save them, and the future will be someone else’s to face.

And that is the last thing Michigan needs right now.

About the writer: Ann Arbor resident John U. Bacon is the author of the national bestsellers “Fourth and Long: The Future of College Football,” “Bo’s Lasting Lessons” and “Three and Out: Rich Rodriguez and the Michigan Wolverines in the Crucible of College Football.” You can follow him on Twitter (@Johnubacon), and at johnubacon.com.

The Chronicle relies in part on regular voluntary subscriptions to support our publication of columnists like John U. Bacon. Click this link for details: Subscribe to The Chronicle. And if you’re already supporting us, please encourage your friends, neighbors and colleagues to help support The Chronicle, too!

John U. Bacon

Exactly one year ago, Brady Hoke was the darling of Michigan football fans.

He’d charmed even the doubters at his first press conference – where he coined his now famous phrase, “This is Michigan, for God’s sake!” – then led a team that had averaged just five wins a season over the previous three years to a 10-2 regular-season record, including thrilling wins over Notre Dame, Nebraska and arch-rival Ohio State. Then he capped it all off with an overtime upset of Virginia Tech in the prestigious Sugar Bowl – Michigan’s first BCS bowl victory since a young man named Tom Brady beat Alabama on Jan. 1, 2000.

The man could do no wrong. When Hoke started referring to injuries as “boo-boos” and Ohio State as “Ohio,” fans did not think he was an ignoramus who knew nothing about the greatest rivalry in sports – as they surely would have if Rich Rodriguez had said the same things – but a motivational genius, who understood exactly what the duel was all about.

When fans noticed Hoke did not wear a headset during games – unlike just about every other coach in the country – they did not conclude he was an out-of-touch, glorified cheerleader, but a master delegator and teacher, trusting the play calling to his assistants while he focused on coaching his players.

When you’re winning, everything’s cool. But when you start losing, the same people who patted you on the back start questioning your quirks.

So, this year, after the Wolverines got smoked by top-ranked Alabama, then lost to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State – three teams they beat last year – some fans dusted off their pitchforks and torches, and more will surely follow suit if the Wolverines lose their bowl game.

But Hoke’s phenomenal freshman year was just as predictable as his sophomore slump. In fact, I predicted both – and this, from the same guy who guessed just about everything wrong from 2007 through 2010, what I call my “unfortunate streak of poor prognostication.”

My calculations were pretty simple: Last season, almost all of Michigan’s key players returned, including an exceptional class of senior leaders. The schedule was much easier, too, with all but one of their big games at home. Perhaps most important, the defense simply had to be better (as my father often tells me, “When you’re on the floor, you can’t fall out of bed”) – and it was, dramatically. I figured all that had to be worth at least two wins, maybe three, and that proved true.

Likewise, when I predicted Michigan would go 8-4 this year, I made my calculation on the same criteria, just in reverse: the schedule would be substantially tougher, opening with Alabama in Dallas, then playing improved Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State squads, all on the road; and they had lost key players like Ryan Van Bergen, Mike Martin, and David Molk, who might have been the toughest to replace. Plus, their leadership and luck were bound to dip, at least a little – and they did.

Sure enough, now they’re 8-4 – and just to get there, they needed last second comebacks against Michigan State and Northwestern. Because Penn State and Ohio State are both ineligible to go to bowl games this year, Michigan will move up in the bowl game pecking order, and therefore will have to play a tougher team than expected – and probably lose, which would leave them with an uninspiring 8-5 record.

But to the fans, it’s not just whether you win or lose – wait, what am I saying? Of course it is! But it’s also the way they’re losing that’s making some fans rummage for their pitchforks.

If you’re going to let your assistant coaches pick your plays, as Hoke does, you better pick those assistants very carefully. Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison transformed Michigan’s defense from one of the worst to one of the best in his first season, with the same players, and he’s kept his defense right up there this year, with arguably less talent. I’ve never seen anything like it. If he’s not the best defensive coordinator in the country, I’d like to see who is.

But on offense, coordinator Al Borges took a thoroughbred offense, led by one-of-a-kind Denard Robinson, and reduced it to a plow horse. In the final plays of last week’s 26-21 loss to Ohio State, Robinson sat on the bench – which didn’t sit well with anyone, even the announcers.

But Robinson didn’t sign up to play for these coaches, and these coaches did not recruit him, either. It won’t be fair to judge Hoke until his recruits become his players, and that takes a few years.

By then, fans will either find Hoke’s style charming or cheesy, and it won’t depend on his press conferences, his football philosophy or his headset, just one number: how many games he wins.

As General MacArthur once said, “There is no substitute for victory.”

And that goes double when you’re playing Ohio State.

About the writer: John U. Bacon is the author of “Bo’s Lasting Lessons” and “Three and Out: Rich Rodriguez and the Michigan Wolverines in the Crucible of College Football” – both national bestsellers. His upcoming book, “Fourth and Long: The Future of College Football,” will be published by Simon & Schuster in September 2013. You can follow him on Twitter (@Johnubacon), and at johnubacon.com.

The Chronicle relies in part on regular voluntary subscriptions to support our publication of columnists like John U. Bacon. Click this link for details: Subscribe to The Chronicle. And if you’re already supporting us, please encourage your friends, neighbors and colleagues to help support The Chronicle, too!