Chronicle file photo of Hank Beekley with his team of draft horses – a Belgian and a Shire – as they disk the field on the St. Joseph Mercy Hospital campus. They were preparing the acreage for gardens that will supply fresh vegetables for the hospital cafeteria and for a farmers market. As non-city residents, neither the Belgian nor the Shire is contesting a city council race this election cycle.

On the upside, elections really make it clear that we live in a democracy. They elicit a spurt of energy and passion from the electorate, as voters cheer on their candidates like racing fans at Northville Downs cheer their horse-racing picks. If enthusiasm among voters for civic affairs were sustained throughout the rest of the year, that would really be something. That’s when we expect the thoroughbreds who win the horse race of the election to transform into draft horses and do the work that matters. But cheers for the draft horse are rare, and it only takes a few days post-election for most residents to lose interest until the next campaign.

Part of the election horse race is endorsements by news publications. At this point, I hasten to add – somewhat defensively – that my tenure at The News as opinion editor did not coincide with either of the Bush endorsements, nor with the now-infamous non-endorsement in the McCain/Obama race of 2008. That’s not to assign responsibility for those endorsements to the opinion editor at the time – that’s not how endorsements at newspapers are determined. They result from a decision made by an editorial board, not just one person.

I had always questioned the value of endorsements, and my work on The News’ editorial board re-enforced those doubts. There were three of us – the publisher, editor-in-chief and opinion editor – who made the decisions, sometimes after a great deal of discussion, but often not. Our decisions relied primarily on information gathered by News reporters, along with relatively brief editorial board meetings with those candidates who were gracious enough to endure our questions. Often, it was the one and only time some of us had ever met the candidates – even those who were already elected officials.

It should be obvious that I’m not proud of any of that. Nor do I imagine that journalists who participate in similar endorsement processes at other publications can take much professional pride in adding to the electoral horse race in this way. So I’m glad that as a matter of policy at The Ann Arbor Chronicle, we’ve decided not to make endorsements.

We didn’t make the decision lightly. Readers have asked about it – some even encouraging us to make endorsements – because that’s what serious publications do, right? And ironically, I’m much better informed about the incumbents than I ever was as an editor at The News. I have sat through scores of public meetings since we launched The Chronicle nearly two years ago, and edited scores more reports of meetings that someone else survived.

So why isn’t The Chronicle making endorsements? Actually, we already do. We endorse democracy, and independent thought. We make that endorsement by reporting out in detail on our local government in action. We care about why and how and when elected and appointed officials make decisions, and we convey that information to Chronicle readers. When you understand what’s happening in the government that your local tax dollars support, you’re equipped with a foundation from which to make your own decisions.

Your vote will be informed by other things as well, of course. I’d bet that most of us can point to a single main reason for why we vote for a particular candidate over another. Maybe it’s because you’re voting against a candidate, rather than really for their opponent. Maybe you know them to be a liar. Maybe you disagree with too many of their policy positions. Maybe you’ve just received way too many pieces of campaign literature from a candidate, and you can’t imagine a candidate who’s spending that kind of money to get your vote is the kind of person you want representing you. All you know is: Not that one.

Or maybe you’re actually voting for the candidate whose oval you blacken on election day. Maybe that candidate voted for an ordinance you wanted to see passed. Or maybe that candidate voted against a controversial residential development you also opposed. Or maybe that candidate knocked on your door and you liked the way she shook your hand and looked you in the eye. Maybe it’s because your guy is a glass-eating clown.

Money, in the form of campaign contributions, is one type of endorsement that’s useful for keeping track of the horse race. The basic horse race question is: Who raised more money? But it’s worth reflecting in more detail about who’s giving money to the candidates – are the contributors people or organizations that you know and respect? Are you impressed by the ability to raise sizable amounts – or do you find that distasteful? Are you more impressed by the number of people who have unrecognizable names making small donations, or by large donations from recognized opinion leaders in the community?

For candidates in city of Ann Arbor races, Chronicle intern Hayley Byrnes converted the scanned .pdf campaign finance filings on the county clerk’s website to something more tractable: [Excel workbook, one worksheet per candidate] [searchable .pdf file listing all contributions ]

The same organizations that contribute to campaigns often make explicit endorsements of their own – for candidates, it’s just another way to tell voters that they’re winning the horse race. Does it matter to you that one candidate gets more endorsements than another? Or does it just matter what kind of endorsements they’re getting – labor, business, or environmental groups? One Ann Arborite once told me that she simply votes for whatever candidates the local chapter of the Sierra Club endorsed. To which I said, “Really?? Huh.”

But, in fact, unless we know the candidates well, most of us probably do have just one equally marginal reason why we vote for them. And in the primary elections, when political ideologies of candidates generally align, there are only a few races in which there’s a clear choice. Many times, honestly, it’s a crap shoot.

So read as much as you can – you can find The Chronicle’s reports of primary election forums here. Talk to as many people as you can, watch where the money comes from, and pick your own reason to vote for a candidate. But don’t rely on just one source to tell you who to vote for, especially not a newspaper’s editorial board.

And more importantly, do all those things after the election is over, too. Paying attention when the people you elect are doing the work you’ve chosen them to do is the best way to ensure that your vote counts.

Elections are horse races, but governance is when the fields get plowed. And that’s something we all should endorse.

Mary Morgan is publisher of The Ann Arbor Chronicle.

As first reported by The Chronicle, the board of trustees two-day retreat at the Westin Book Cadillac hotel in Detroit cost a total of $9,910.70, including dinner at the hotel’s 24grille restaurant and $5,887.43 in hotel charges. WCC’s paper The Washtenaw Voice later reported that the dinner bill included $573 worth of wine.

Whitworth said the cost of the meal was higher than anticipated due to the fact that he missed a detail on the menu that 24grille faxed him before the retreat. Specifically, he didn’t read the fine print stating that the restaurant would charge $100 per person for the meal, not including tax and gratuity. Whitworth said he expected to pay about $2,000 and was shocked when he saw the bill.

Whitworth said he wanted to assert his culpability in response to a May 26 AnnArbor.com article, which was based on a press release issued by Lonnie Scott, a Democratic candidate for the 54th District state representative seat. Scott criticized fellow candidate and WCC board of trustees treasurer David Rutledge for attending the retreat dinner, calling the $4,023.87 bill excessive and a waste of taxpayer money.

The board has also received criticism for spending an extravagant amount on a dinner just before its members voted to increase WCC’s tuition by nearly 10% – or $7 per credit hour.

During Wednesday’s briefing, Whitworth stressed that Rutledge and the other board members are in no way responsible for the cost of the meal and were not aware of the expense at the time of the retreat. He called blaming the trustees “wholly and totally inappropriate.”

“I thought it was very, very unfortunate that Lonnie Scott would somehow think David Rutledge was responsible,” Whitworth said. “I want to take full responsibility.”

Whitworth also emphasized that the dinner was business-oriented. He said it’s important to isolate the trustees away from their other obligations once a year for the retreat so that they can concentrate on important matters pertaining to the college. He also defended the tuition increase, saying that it was necessary to maintain the quality of the college’s vocational and technical programs. He noted that the college will lose about $3.5 million in local tax revenue this year and therefore needs to raise tuition rates.

Whitworth said that in order to remedy his mistake, he has personally reimbursed the college for the dinner with a $4,024 check. He said he wasn’t pressured by the board of trustees in any way, and the reimbursement was entirely his idea.

“This is my error,” Whitworth said. “If you’re going to be responsible, there ought to be a consequence.”

The Chronicle initially reported the dinner and other expenses in the context of covering the March 5-6 retreat, where the trustees and staff discussed the possibility of opening a satellite campus in Ann Arbor – possibly in partnership with the Ann Arbor District Library. Other topics included financial updates, a discussion about tuition increases, a briefing on student demographic data, curriculum changes, and building projects.

Following the retreat, The Chronicle submitted a Freedom of Information Act request for expenses related to the two-day event. In addition to the $4,023 dinner tab, the college paid $5,887.43 in hotel charges that included individual guest charges, catering and Internet charges. [.pdf file of receipts from Westin Book Cadillac, in response to a FOIA request]

About the writer: Helen Nevius is a freelance writer for The Ann Arbor Chronicle.

David Rutledge – a Washtenaw Community College trustee and a county road commissioner – is joining a crowded field of Democrats in the 54th District state House primary. That seat, representing eastern Washtenaw County, is now held by veteran lawmaker Alma Wheeler Smith, a Democrat running for governor. For the Republican primary in the 54th, Rodney Nanney of Ypsilanti, who has previously campaigned for other candidates, is making his first bid for office.

On the county’s west side, only one Democratic candidate in the 52nd District – Scio Township trustee Christine Green – is firmly in the race, while Republican Mark Ouimet, a current county commissioner, is raising a sizable war chest for his primary campaign in that district. The seat is now held by Democrat Pam Byrnes, who is running for state Senate.

Districts that may be up for grabs are particularly important this election cycle: Following the completion of the 2010 U.S. Census, the legislature will redraw state legislative and congressional districts. Although that every-10-years exercise is meant to account for population changes, it typically creates political advantage and disadvantage. The most recent redistricting, for example, led to the creation of a congressional district map that in 2002 put former U.S. Rep. Lynn Rivers (D-Ann Arbor) is the same district as fellow Democrat U.S. Rep. John Dingell, ensuring that one of the Michigan Democrats would be knocked out of Congress.

Though providing updates on all districts, this report focuses on the 52nd and 54th District House races, where the fields of candidates have recently expanded or contracted. We’ll introduce candidates entering the contests – as well as some notable politicians who’ve decided not to run – and report on how candidates are faring in their fundraising efforts. Future reports will focus on candidates’ backgrounds and issues, in addition to looking at any new local candidates in the House and Senate races.

54th District: A Crowded Field

This district, on the county’s east side, typically favors Democrats in November, causing intense competition in the primary. Democrats in the race so far include Lonnie Scott – an aide to Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith – who faces a well-known candidate in David Rutledge. Additional competition comes from newcomer Dave Franklin, a 2006 Milan High School grad who works as a library clerk; activist Bill Riney of Ypsilanti Township, who runs a landscaping business; and another first-time candidate, Michael Mashif White of Ypsilanti, a training manager for AT&T.

There’s also a new name on the Republican ballot – Rodney Nanney is making his first run for public office.

A city of Ypsilanti resident, Rodney has been involved in city issues, including the campaign against a city income tax. “I’ve campaigned for other people,” says Nanney, citing Ypsilanti city council member Peter Murdoch’s campaign among others.

A consultant who provides planning, zoning and economic development services for local government, Nanney says he sees the effect of state budget decisions up close. “They’re starving local government and our schools to save the state bureaucracy,” he says. “I think this year people are ready for something different than usual in eastern Washtenaw County. It’s the year to get involved.”

While Nanney is a first-time candidate, Democrat David Rutledge has a long history as an elected official. He’s serving his fourth term as a member of the board of trustees at Washtenaw Community College, where the board is selected in nonpartisan, countywide elections. Rutledge also is a member of the Washtenaw County Road Commission, an appointed position.

Rutledge served as Superior Township supervisor in the 1980s. However, state office has been elusive. He’s previously run unsuccessful primary campaigns for the 54th. But after assessing the failures and talking to prospective supporters, he says he’s ready to capitalize on those experiences.

“Tough economic times have stirred the fire in the belly again,” Rutledge says. “I have passion and an unrealized dream.”

Rutledge says he’ll run on his experience in public service.

He’s currently co-chair of the county’s Success by 6 early childhood education program and served some 30 years on the county parks and recreation commission. During his tenure as Superior Township supervisor, the township officials created a technology center district on Geddes, he says. An effort to diversify a tax base heavily dependent on residential property taxes, the move didn’t pay dividends right away but is now home to the Hyundai America Technical Center.

Tax policy also emerges in the campaign of Dave Franklin, who offers non-traditional points of view for a candidate running as a Democrat.

He blames taxes and state regulations for the state’s economic and employment woes, and argues that lost revenue will be offset by new industries and jobs. He holds that property taxes are “immoral” and income taxes “unjust.”

“I’m a populist Democrat, if anything,” Franklin says. “More Jackson than a modern-day Democrat.” While Franklin says he finds that certain aspects of the Libertarian party philosophy are interesting, he says he doesn’t identify with that party. “I think diversity is a good thing for the Democratic party. I can be a Democrat without necessarily following a party platform.”

Bill Riney has previously been a candidate for the county board of commissioners, WCC board of trustees, and the 54th District seat. He has not yet filed a petition with the Michigan Secretary of State Washtenaw County clerk’s office to run in the 54th District race, but he’s been running a grassroots campaign since last fall. The campaign in part entails traveling through district neighborhoods with a trailer loaded with hotdogs and soft drinks that he gives away. “I’m out there every weekend,” he says.

Candidates have until May 11 to file the petitions required to be on the ballot.

Michael Mashif White, a resident of Washtenaw County for eight-plus years, has filed his petition, a process that requires collecting 200 voters’ signatures. He recently launched a campaign website, and has gotten involved in the county Democratic Party. He’s also been meeting local school and government officials and has pulled together volunteers to work on phone banks, develop e-mail lists and get ready to start canvassing neighborhoods.

Others in the Race?

The five-candidate Democratic field could grow further if Ypsilanti Township trustee Mike Martin and county commissioner Rolland Sizemore Jr. decide to mount campaigns. Both have said they were considering runs.

Martin said recently it was still possible that he’d run, but he was concerned about constituent reaction should he seek another office before completing a single term on the township board. Sizemore, now serving as chairman of the county board, says he’ll wait until a contract is finalized with the incoming county administrator, Verna McDaniel, and then announce his plans.

In addition to the Democrats, Ypsilanti resident Dave Palmer says he plans to run as an Independent. In that case, he will have until the middle of July to collect 600 signatures and file a petition with the Secretary of State Washtenaw County clerk to get on the ballot.

Palmer is a business manager for LaVision, a software and systems integration company. He’s a Washtenaw County native and has worked on Democratic and Green party campaigns. He also runs a consulting firm after hours. That company, ugconsulting.net, offers political consulting for independent and third-party candidates, as well as development advice for nonprofits and small business.

Since 2000, Republican and sometimes minor candidates have, at most, won 32% of the vote in the district that includes the city of Ypsilanti, and Augusta, Salem, Superior and Ypsilanti townships. [.pdf file of 54th District map] Palmer knows the numbers and the vote count he’d need to win. He thinks it’s doable and that an independent could help bridge the deep divide between Democrats and Republicans in Lansing or, failing that, hold their feet to the fire.

Following the Money: 54th District

Though fundraising has been robust in other parts of the county, that isn’t the case in the 54th District race. The threshold for reporting campaign spending is $1,000.

Democrat Lonnie Scott had raised less than $2,000 by Dec. 31, the close of a campaign-finance reporting period. He was the only candidate in the five-man primary field to report any contribution to his campaign.

With a goal of having $40,000 to pay for printing, mailing and other campaign expenses for an Aug. 3 primary, the 2005 Central Michigan grad has a long way to go.

“I think we’ll get there,” said Scott, buoyed by response to his first “phone bank.” That calling blitz reached several thousand 54h District residents who’ve previously voted in primary elections, he says. “I hope it will make them go to the website to learn more about me and the issues.” Information about a March 13 campaign event in Depot Town is also on the site.

“I’m in no position to self fund,” says Scott. “If the dollars don’t come, we have to hit the door-to-door work harder.”

52nd District: In, Out, On the Fence

On the county’s west side, two Democrats who’ve been considering the 52nd District state House race aren’t in it yet. In fact, one of them has officially decided not to run.

Saline Mayor Gretchen Driskell had given serious consideration to a run, but now says she’s decided against it. With local government suffering the impact of the state’s economic troubles, it would be the worst possible time to leave the city, she says. “Stability is better when you have to do some reorganizing and we need to make some changes to absorb cuts from the state. It was a hard decision.”

Still on the fence is Washtenaw County commissioner Ken Schwartz. In November, the Scio Township Democrat said he hadn’t made a decision, but that it would be a surprise if he wasn’t running for the 52nd District seat.

Three months later, Schwartz is much less certain.

One reason, he says, is the transition under way in county government. Several factors point to a broad shakeup: The retirement of long-time administrator Bob Guenzel, announced in December; the pending departure of at least two commissioners, Mark Ouimet and Jeff Irwin; and a retrenching brought on by falling revenue. A two-term commissioner, Schwartz says he’s in a position to help reshape county government.

In addition, Schwartz says he’s discouraged by gridlock and partisanship at the state level.

If he does run, Schwartz says it’s the message – and whether the Democratic base is energized – that will lead to a win in November, more so than money. But getting a message out takes some resources.

“Because of the economy, the average person can’t give a candidate $100 like they might have in the past,” Schwartz says. “Maybe they can give $10 or $20. … I’m evaluating where I can be most effective. I’ll make a decision by April 15.”

If Schwartz does stay on the sidelines, the one Democrat so far who’s definitely running – Scio Township trustee Christine Green – will avoid a primary. A lawyer elected to the township board in 2008, Green hopes to succeed current state Rep. Pam Byrnes and retain the seat for the Democrats, who’ve held it since 2004. Byrnes is term-limited in the House and is running for state Senate in District 18.

The district stretches from western Washtenaw County into a northwestern corner of the city of Ann Arbor and includes the city of Saline and the townships of Webster, Dexter and Lodi. [.pdf file of 52nd District map]

It’s generally considered a swing district.

Byrnes unsuccessfully tried to unseat Republican Gene DeRossett in 2002. The Republican incumbent won about 53% of the vote that year. Byrnes then prevailed over Republican Joe Yekulis when term limits created a race without an incumbent in 2004. She won with 55% of the vote that year and has twice been re-elected. Republican challengers got a little less than a third of the vote in 2006 and 2008.

Following the Money: 52th District

On the Republican side, Mark Ouimet is the only candidate in the race so far.

Now serving on the 11-member county board, Ouimet raised almost $74,000 for his campaign before the first of the year. That topped the combined total of the next two richest local state House campaigns – between the 53rd District Democratic candidates Ned Staebler and Jeff Irwin, who’s also a county commissioner. The most recent campaign-finance reports cover contributions and spending through Dec. 31, 2009.

“It appears Republicans are trying to buy the seat,” fellow county commissioner Ken Schwartz says, referring to campaign funds that the Scio Township Republican is amassing.

Ouimet’s donor list through Dec. 31 includes some 60 county residents ready and able to donate the maximum allowable $500 per person. Ouimet has loaned his campaign about $16,000. Excluding that loan, the average gift to Ouimet’s campaign has been about $280 per person. [Link to the Michigan Secretary of State's searchable campaign finance database. All campaign finance reports for these races are filed with the Secretary of State.]

The single political-action committee contribution to Ouimet in his most recent campaign-finance report was $1,000 from the Michigan Chamber of Commerce PAC.

In fundraising for the Democratic primary, Green – a lawyer elected to Scio board in 2008 – had raised $13,550 through Dec. 31. Contributions to her campaign have averaged about $300 per person.

There’s precedent for a high-priced race in the 52th District. When term limits last led to an open seat, the Byrnes-Yekulis campaigns combined to spend almost $400,000.

Other State Race Updates

For more coverage on all state races, see previous Chronicle articles: “More Candidates Vie for State House, Senate“;  “State Races in Districts 54, 55 Take Shape” and “State Legislative Candidates Lining Up.”

53rd District House

The 53rd House district covers most of the city of Ann Arbor, and is being contested in the Democratic primary by county commissioner Jeff Irwin and Ned Staebler, vice president of program administration at the Michigan Economic Development Corp.

First-time candidate Staebler says he continues to introduce himself to voters at regular Saturday coffees and at gatherings in private homes. He’ll begin a leave of absence from his job at the MEDC two months before the Aug. 3 primary.

Irwin’s campaign is also using house parties to connect with voters. He’s completing work on a website, which hasn’t yet been launched. He does have a page on the Facebook social networking site, as does Staebler.

As of Dec. 31, Staebler and Irwin had raised $40,850 and $24,300 respectively.

55th District House

The 55th, considered a swing district, includes Pittsfield, Saline and York townships in Washtenaw County, along with communities in Monroe County. Democrats and Republican have fought hard over the seat, represented by Democrat Kathy Angerer since 2004.

But fundraising has been relatively slow among the candidates hoping to take the term-limited lawmaker’s job. (Enacted in 1992, the state’s term-limits law set a cap of three two-year terms for state representatives and two four-year terms for the senate. Also limited to two four-year terms are the governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general.)

By Dec. 31, Republican Joe Zurawski, York Township supervisor, reported contributions of more than $11,000 – including about $8,000 of his own money.

His opponents in the Republican primary in the 55th – Rick Olson of Saline Township and Mary Kay Thayer, a former Monroe County commissioner – trailed. Olson had loaned his campaign more than $6,000 and had only one other contribution. Thayer raised about $1,200.

Democrat Mike Smith, a Bedford school board member who’s worked as the AFL-CIO community services liaison to the United Way of Monroe County, had raised about $3,900 by Dec. 31.

It’s expected that Angerer will work to help her party hold the seat.

18th District Senate

The current 53rd District rep, Rebekah Warren, started the year with more than $62,500 toward her campaign for the state Senate’s 18th District. That campaign fund included $10,000 rolled over from Warren’s state representative campaign fund.

She faces fellow Democrat Pam Byrnes of Lyndon Township, who entered the Senate race several months later than Warren. Byrnes’s Senate campaign had just $7,100 as of Dec. 31. But she had yet to tap her state representative campaign fund, which held $104,000.

Now represented by state Sen. Liz Brater (D-Ann Arbor), the district includes Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, and the townships of Ann Arbor, Augusta, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lyndon, Northfield, Salem, Scio, Sharon, Superior, Sylvan, Webster and Ypsilanti. Brater is term-limited from further service in the legislature.

Democrat Ruth Ann Jamnick, a former state rep and former Ypsilanti Township supervisor, had considered joining the primary field but says she won’t enter the race.

On the Republican side, Salem Township treasurer David Trent says he will soon decide whether to seek his party’s nomination for the Senate seat.

There’s another wrinkle in this race: Byrnes is thought to be a potential candidate for lieutenant governor with Redford Township Democrat Andy Dillon, now Speaker of the House of Representatives, who officially announced his candidacy for governor on Sunday.

Byrnes and Dillon have worked closely as leaders of the Democratic-controlled House. Byrnes’ support of abortion rights would presumably help Dillon with voters at odds with him on that issue. He’s among the Michigan Democrats who oppose abortion.

Despite the persistent speculation, Byrnes says she’s never discussed the lieutenant governor’s post with Dillon.

“Even if I had, I’m not sure I’d accept,” she says. “I’m running for state Senate.”

Mike Smith

With three Republicans already in the race, Lambertville Democrat Mike Smith has announced he’s seeking the Democratic nomination for the 55th District seat in the state House of Representatives – a district that includes Pittsfield, Saline and York townships in Washtenaw County, along with parts of Monroe County.

A member of the Bedford Public Schools Board of Education, the 36-year-old Smith had been considering a run for the seat now held by state Rep. Kathy Angerer, D-Dundee, for some time.

Already elected to three two-year terms, Angerer is unable to run under the state’s term limits law. Smith announced his decision Friday.

Employed as the AFL-CIO community services liaison to the United Way of Monroe County, Smith is so far the only Democrat seeking to represent the district.

Saline Township resident Rick Olson, former Monroe County commissioner Mary Kay Thayer, and York Township supervisor Joe Zurawski are competing to be the Republican nominee.

Republicans held the seat until Angerer first won election in 2004.

A Michigan native, Smith and his wife, Kristi, have a daughter who attends Bedford Public Schools. Smith says his campaign will emphasize education as the key to success, not only for future generations, but also for workers displaced by the current economic downturn. [Link to campaign website]

He is a long-time member of the United Steelworkers Local 2511 District 2 AFL-CIO and has served as chief steward, trustee and president of the local. He now represents Local 2511 as a delegate to the Monroe/Lenawee County AFL-CIO Central Labor Council.

For additional Chronicle coverage of the 2010 state races, see “State Races in Districts 54, 55 Take Shape” and “More Candidates Vie for State House, Senate.”

About the writer: Judy McGovern lives in Ann Arbor. She has worked as a journalist here, and in Ohio, New York and several other states.

The capitol building in Lansing. (Photo by Mary Morgan, taken back when the weather was warmer.)

Local candidates for the Michigan legislature are jumping into races for both the state House and Senate, making for a potentially crowded primary season next summer – and creating openings in elected offices closer to home.

Most notably, as many as four Washtenaw County commissioners could leave the 11-member board to seek state office in 2010.

In this report, we’ll give an update on the 18th District state Senate race, as well as House races in the 52nd, 53rd, 54th and 55th districts. You’ll find out who’s running as the “hot dog man,” which political rumor is described by an elected official as “funny,” how many candidates have Facebook groups, and who expects to spend more than $65,000 on his campaign.

All of this and more, after the jump.

Washtenaw County Commissioners

Ypsilanti Township Democrat Rolland Sizemore Jr., current chairman of the county board, says he may enter the Democratic primary election to succeed veteran local lawmaker Alma Wheeler Smith as the 54th District representative in the state House of Representatives.

“I’ll decide by the first of the year,” says Sizemore, who was first elected as commissioner in 2000. “I have name recognition and feel I’ve done a pretty good job.”

Should he run, Sizemore would join an exodus that now includes county commissioners Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) and Mark Ouimet (R-Scio Township). Irwin is running for the 53rd District House seat; Ouimet for the 52nd District seat.

A fourth commissioner, Ken Schwartz (D-Scio Township), expects to run in the 52nd District as well. “I won’t have a final decision and formal announcement until after the first of the year, but it would be a surprise if I wasn’t running for the state Legislature,” he says.

Assuming he enters the race, Schwartz will face a primary – Democrat and Scio Township trustee Christine Green has already declared her candidacy. Irwin is also running in a primary that will almost certainly decide who represents the heavily Democratic 53rd District, which includes most of Ann Arbor.

State Senate: 18th District

There are no incumbents in any of the local races for state office: most current representatives are ineligible to run under the state’s term-limits law. State Rep. Rebekah Warren, representing the 53rd District, isn’t term-limited, but she’s running for the 18th District state Senate seat now held by state Sen. Liz Brater (D-Ann Arbor), who’s ineligible to seek re-election. (Enacted in 1992, Michigan’s term-limits law caps service in the House to three two-year terms and service in the Senate and executive branch to two, four-year terms.)

While the House races are interesting because of the numerous people queuing up, the 18th Senate District is notable for the absence – thus far – of state Rep. Pam Byrnes, who represents the 52nd District.

A Democrat from Lyndon Township, Byrnes is term-limited and has been expected to run for Brater’s seat. However, Byrnes opted to stand pat when Warren entered the race in September, saying only that she was giving a Senate campaign serious consideration and would decide by the end of the year.

That’s fueled speculation that she might be a candidate for lieutenant governor if House Speaker Andy Dillon of Redford Township runs for governor. Speaker pro tempore of the House, Byrnes is a member of Dillon’s leadership team and has served as chairwoman of the committee examining Dillon’s controversial proposal for reorganizing public employee health care.

Byrnes says she’s aware of the rumor. “I think it’s funny. Andy has not said a thing to me. As far as I know, he hasn’t made up his mind about running.”

If Dillon enters the race, he would challenge Lt. Gov. John Cherry in the Democratic primary. Term-limited out of the House and the Senate, Washtenaw County’s Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, representing the 54th District, is also campaigning for the Democratic nomination for governor.

Byrnes’ fundraising power would likely help her overcome any delay in launching a primary campaign. In the last election cycle, she had a six-figure war chest that included $15,900 in contributions from various political action committees. Warren’s 2008 contributions similarly included some $14,500 in gifts from PACs.

Byrnes continues to hold fundraisers. She, Warren and other candidates seeking offices with larger geographic areas than those they now hold can transfer existing funds to new campaigns.

Former state Rep. Ruth Ann Jamnick, an Ypsilanti Township Democrat, is also a potential candidate for the senate seat. The 18th District takes in the cities of Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti and the townships of Ann Arbor, Augusta, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lyndon, Northfield, Salem, Scio, Sharon, Superior, Sylvan, Webster and Ypsilanti.

State House: 53rd District

After a soft launch last month via the Facebook group “Jeff Irwin for State Representative,” county commissioner Irwin held a formal campaign kickoff in his bid to represent the 53rd District Tuesday evening at Arbor Brewing Company.

His primary opponent, Ann Arbor resident Ned Staebler, launched his campaign in October and has begun holding fundraisers. A recent Staebler gathering at the home of philanthropist Judy Dow Rumelhart and her husband, Don, was hosted by a group that included University of Michigan regents Kathy White and Julia Donovan Darlow, IT pioneer Herb Amster, philanthropist Peter Heydon, former Clinton administration economic adviser Paul Dimond and other community members able to lend financial and political support.

“That was my dad’s generation,” says Staebler, 36, a vice president at the Michigan Economic Development Corp. His father, lawyer Michael Staebler, was also among the hosts.

Smaller events, again at friends’ homes, are in the works, says Staebler, who’s also holding bi-weekly coffee hours Saturday mornings at Sweetwaters on Washington Street. The holidays may interrupt the alternating Saturday schedule, he says. The Ohio State game will not. The 9 a.m.-noon gathering is on. Game time is at noon.

Like Irwin, Staebler has a Facebook presence. The website nedstaebler.com is a bit behind schedule, he says.

Irwin’s supporters include several of his fellow county commissioners and Ann Arbor city councilmembers, plus the current state rep in that district, Rebekah Warren, whose husband, Conan Smith, is a colleague of Irwin’s on the county board of commissioners. Warren’s support is an especially big deal, says Irwin. Elected officials don’t necessarily take sides in primaries. “I’m very happy to have the endorsement of the sitting representative,” he says.

Other elected officials who’ve signed on to the Irwin campaign include fellow Ann Arbor representatives to the county board of commissioners Leah Gunn and Barbara Bergman, as well as Smith.

State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, Conan Smith’s mother and Warren’s mother-in-law, is also backing Irwin, a 32-year-old who worked in nonprofit environmental advocacy for eight years before turning his attention to the county board full time.

His supporters also include past and present Ann Arbor Democratic party officials like Susan Greenberg and Tim Colenback, along with community volunteers like Jennifer Santi Hall, Rene Greff, Nick Roumel and Martin Contreras.

In the last primary election for the seat, back in 2006, Warren spent some $62,000 in defeating her opponent Leigh Greden, who at that time served on the Ann Arbor city council. (Warren ran unopposed in the 2008 Democratic primary.) Staebler says he expects his budget to top $65,000.

Ann Arbor Mayor John Hieftje, who’d been a potential candidate for the House seat or the 18th Senate District, says he won’t seek either.

State House: 54th District

In addition to county commissioner Rolland Sizemore Jr., there are other new names in the race for the 54th House District, which includes the eastern Washtenaw County communities of Ypsilanti and Ypsilanti Township, and Augusta, Salem and Superior townships.

Activist Bill Riney of Ypsilanti Township says he’ll be a candidate in the Democratic primary in August. And political newcomer Michael Mashif White of Ypsilanti says he’s ready to file with the Secretary of State’s office to create a campaign committee.

A trainer for AT&T, White talks about applying his experience as a single parent and member of a family that struggled financially. He promises more information as his campaign gets under way.

A much more familiar figure, Riney battled Ypsilanti Township officials over a waste incinerator and has previously been a candidate for the county board of commissioners, the Washtenaw Community College board of trustees, and the 54th District seat.

Recently the subject of news stories for perching in a tree in a failed attempt to prevent utility company contractors from cutting it down, Riney campaigns as “the hot dog man,” pulling a trailer of free franks and soft drinks through neighborhoods. It was free carnations on Mother’s Day, says Riney, who runs a landscape business. He says his primary issue will be job creation.

There are other potential candidates, too: Ypsilanti resident Allen Francois, a former staffer for Wheeler Smith and U.S. Rep. John Dingell; Ypsilanti Township trustee Mike Martin; and Superior Township resident David Rutledge, a member of the WCC board of trustees and the Washtenaw County Road Commission, and twice a candidate in the 54th.

Current Wheeler Smith aide Lonnie Scott is also committed to running. A 2005 Central Michigan grad who grew up in the Lincoln Consolidated School District, Scott recently launched an education challenge to raise money for scholarships for each the 54th’s three school districts – Lincoln, Willow Run and Ypsilanti.

“I’ve gotten some response but haven’t pushed it too hard,” he says. That will change this week when he returns to Lincoln High School to play a role in the high school musical.

“I’m playing the Grinch,” he says. A table set up in the lobby area will ask for support on the scholarship effort and ask patrons to tell Lansing officials not to “be a Grinch” on education funding.

State House: 55th District

There are likewise some new entries into the race to succeed term-limited state Rep. Kathy Angerer in the district that takes in Pittsfield, Saline and York townships in Washtenaw County, along with communities in Monroe County.

Saline Township resident Rick Olson and former Monroe County commissioner Mary Kay Thayer, both Republicans, say they want to be their party’s nominee.

York Township supervisor Joe Zurawski, also a Republican, had previous announced his candidacy.

Raised in the Upper Peninsula, Olson worked in state government in Washington State in the 1980s and returned to Michigan in 1989. He’s worked in the private sector and had been the business manager for Adrian and Harper Woods public schools. He now works in mortgage banking.

A member of the Monroe Community College board of trustees, Thayer served two terms on the county board of commissioners and, previously, on the Lambertville Township board. “I have a record,” she says. “And I’ve never lost an election.”

Thayer left the county board when her multiple sclerosis limited her mobility. But, she says, she’s rebounded, feels well and has ample energy. She and her husband Jack have two adult daughters. They run an engineering consulting firm. Her campaign website is still being developed.

While the Republicans face a primary, prospective Democratic candidate Michael J. Smith, a Temperance resident and member of the Bedford board of education, is still weighing his decision. Smith, who works as the Monroe County United Way’s AFL-CIO community services liaison, says an announcement will come shortly.

State House: 52nd District

Back in the 52nd District, county commissioner Mark Ouimet got his campaign started earlier than expected. His website launched ahead of the timeline Ouimet had originally set for announcing whether or not he’d run.

“The idea was to avoid any distractions before we passed the county budget,” he says. “I was sincere about that and don’t think it created a problem when the website went up.”

Thus far, Ouimet – whose campaign also has a Facebook presence – is the only Republican in the race.

Whatever Democrat appears on the November ballot is likely to be primary-tested. While county commissioner Ken Schwartz is in the “probably” category, Scio Township trustee Christine Green is a full-fledged candidate.

For now, that’s meant balancing a law practice and township responsibilities with opportunities to meet 52nd District residents, Green says. “I see a lot of people in the course of regular business, too, and I’m getting good feedback.”

Saline Mayor Gretchen Driskell is also a potential candidate for that district, which includes northeast Ann Arbor, the cities of Chelsea and Saline, and the townships of Ann Arbor, Bridgewater, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lodi, Lyndon, Manchester, Northfield, Pittsfield, Scio, Sharon, Sylvan and Webster.

[Previous Chronicle coverage: "State Legislative Candidates Lining Up" and "State Races in Districts 54, 55 Take Shape"]

About the writer: Judy McGovern lives in Ann Arbor. She has worked as a journalist here, and in Ohio, New York and several other states.

Candidates for Michigan’s House of Representatives still have eight months to file for the 2010 election. But with money to raise and campaigns to organize, most potential candidates for the state’s 54th District say they expect to make decisions about entering the race by the end of this year.

At least four Democrats from the eastern Washtenaw County district are considering running for the seat now held by state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, who’s ineligible to run after being elected to three terms. (Smith is campaigning to be the Democratic candidate for governor.) Allen Francois, Mike Martin, David Rutledge and Lonnie Scott are all potential candidates in the overwhelmingly Democratic district, which includes the city of Ypsilanti, and Augusta, Salem, Superior and Ypsilanti townships. [Link to 54th District map.]

The field in the nearby 55th House District so far appears to be smaller. Republican Joe Zurawski of Washtenaw County is a candidate for the seat held by three-term state Rep. Kathy Angerer, a Democrat who is ineligible to run again. On the Democratic side, Monroe County resident Michael J. Smith says it’s very likely he will run.

The 55th District includes Pittsfield, Saline and York townships in Washtenaw County, along with communities in Monroe County. [Link to 55th District map.] Angerer and her predecessor Matt Milosch have come from Monroe County. Milosch, a Republican, lost to Angerer after serving a single term.

54th District: Eastern Washtenaw

Since term limits began in the early 1990s, eastern Washtenaw County residents have seen Democratic primary elections in years when incumbent House members have been unable to run again – and the successful primary candidates have gone on to serve the maximum three, two-year terms.

Although that pattern needn’t hold, it does heighten the import of an August primary. And prospective candidates certainly know that.

David Rutledge has twice been a candidate in those open-seat primaries. Allen Francois served as a staffer for Wheeler Smith after she was first elected to the seat in 2004, and Lonnie Scott serves on her staff now.

Term limits do shape the path for would-be state elected officials, acknowledges Francois: “They create an opportunity, though I’m just 33 so it won’t be my last.”

Potential Democratic candidates

Allen Francois: An Ypsilanti native, Francois has spent several years working for a company that offers “disaster management” services – primarily to the federal government. He’s currently working in Mississippi on continued efforts to house people displaced by hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005.

He previously served as a field representative in U.S. Rep. John Dingell’s district office in Ypsilanti.

Francois continues to maintain a home in Ypsilanti and says he and his wife hope to return to the community full time this winter. He expects to decide whether or not to enter the race in November.

Mike Martin: An Ypsilanti Township trustee, Martin was elected to that board just last year. Employed in labor relations, he has been a township resident since 1989.

He says he expects to make a decision about the House race near the end of the year.

David Rutledge: A Superior Township resident, Rutledge has served as an elected trustee on the board of Washtenaw Community College since 1996. He also serves on the board of the Washtenaw County Road Commission, one of three appointed members.

A candidate for the House seat in 1998 and 2004, Rutledge says he understands what it takes to win in a Democratic primary and is assessing his chances now.

Previously a township supervisor and deputy director of the House legislative research staff, Rutledge is president of Alpha Environmental Services Inc., based in Detroit.

Lonnie Scott: A legislative aide to Wheeler Smith since last year, Scott is – at this point – perhaps the most committed to becoming a candidate. While he would have to leave his post to become a formal candidate, the 2005 Central Michigan grad expects to set up an exploratory committee as early as next month.

Scott grew up in the Lincoln Consolidated School District and worked in student affairs at universities in New York and Kentucky before returning to the area last year.

Among others Democrats who have discussed running are Ypsilanti school board member David Bates. Bates tells The Chronicle he has decided not to enter the race. Long-time Willow Run school board member Clifford Smith, who ran fourth in a six-candidate primary for the 54th House seat in 2004, also says he will not run.

Potential Republican candidates

Assuming there is an August Democratic primary, the winner would likely face a Republican candidate in November.

Ypsilanti Township resident Tom Banks has five times appeared on the ballot as his party’s representative. And, this election cycle, Salem Township Clerk David Trent says he’s considering a campaign that would reprise his 2002 run against then-incumbent Democratic state Rep. Ruth Ann Jamnick, who retained the seat.

Elected to the township post in 2004 and again last year, Trent says he is also exploring a run for the 18th District state Senate seat, which must be vacated by the term-limited state Sen. Liz Brater of Ann Arbor.

Trent is also considering the seat on the Washtenaw County Board of Commissioners, held by Democrat Ken Schwartz. The commission member representing the county’s 2nd District, which covers the northwestern part of the county, Schwartz is considering a run for the state House’s 52nd District. (See previous Chronicle coverage.)

Brater’s seat, the 18th Senate District, covers most of Washtenaw County and has been held by Democrats for at least a dozen years. Members of the state Senate are limited to two, four-year terms.

Of course, Trent says, he could ultimately decide to stand pat in his position as clerk.

55th District: Southern Washtenaw, Monroe County

With Angerer term-limited, Monroe County Democrats have turned to Michael J. Smith, a Temperance resident and member of the Bedford board of education. If no other Democrat emerges, he will likely face York Township Supervisor Joe Zurawski – a Republican who is campaigning for the seat.

Supervisor for five years and a township trustee for eight, Zurawski sees the district as traditionally – and today marginally – Republican. While redistricting has changed its boundaries over the years, it was held by numerous Republicans before Angerer won it in 2004.

For his part, Zurawski will highlight his ability to work across party lines. “I’ve worked with Democrats at the township level. I consider Ruth Ann Jamnick a good friend, and (Ann Arbor Township Supervisor) Mike Moran and (Superior Township Supervisor) Bill McFarlane. We all work together.”

A fiscal hawk, he’ll also try to make the case that his York Township experience will translate to statewide government.

A Washtenaw County resident for 22 years, he’s a retired auto industry engineer.

Angerer is a leader among state Democrats – she’s currently majority floor leader – and will undoubtedly do her best to help the party hold the seat. A meeting between Smith and Angerer will be scheduled soon, says Diane Brookes, chairwoman of the Monroe County Democratic party.

With his official entry into the race pending, Smith continues to work as the Monroe County United Way’s AFL-CIO community services liaison. A Monroe County native, he’s a 1992 graduate of Bedford High School and has an associate degree from Monroe Community College.

Smith says his school board service gives him some experience with a tight budget.

Other State Races: An Update

52nd House District

In previous coverage of the 52nd House District, The Chronicle identified three potential Democrat candidates to succeed the term-limited state Rep. Pam Byrnes: county commissioner Ken Schwartz, Saline mayor Gretchen Driskell, and Dr. Philip Zazove, a family practitioner and former Byrnes primary opponent.

There’s another candidate: Scio Township trustee Christine Green says she’s running for the seat that includes northeast Ann Arbor, the cities of Chelsea and Saline, and the townships of Ann Arbor, Bridgewater, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lodi, Lyndon, Manchester, Northfield, Pittsfield, Scio, Sharon, Sylvan and Webster. [Link to 52nd District map.]

A lawyer, Green was elected to the township board last year after serving on the Scio Planning Commission.

She says she’ll formally launch her campaign in November and stress her experience as a member of the Michigan Environmental Council’s board and a past chairwoman of Planned Parenthood of Mid and South Michigan’s board, along with a law practice that emphasizes civil rights and employment law.

“I’ve done a lot of work with nonprofits and it’s made me realize that the opportunity to affect real change is through government,” Green says. “We’re lucky to have wonderful nonprofits, but you need the power of the legislature.”

53rd House District

As expected, Ann Arbor resident Ned Staebler will run for the seat that state Rep. Rebekah Warren now holds, representing Ann Arbor. Staebler, a vice president of program administration at the Michigan Economic Development Corp., will launch his campaign on Oct. 4.

18th Senate District

In earlier coverage of the senate district now represented by veteran Ann Arbor lawmaker Liz Brater, The Chronicle reported that Ypsilanti Township Democrat Ruth Ann Jamnick could be a candidate. Jamnick has now confirmed that she is, indeed, considering a run for the seat.

A former Ypsilanti Township treasurer and supervisor, Jamnick served as state rep in the 54th District for the maximum allowable three terms. “I enjoyed it and think I represented the area well,” says Jamnick. “I’m definitely thinking about the senate and will decide by the first of the year.”

State Rep. Rebekah Warren, an Ann Arbor Democrat from the 53rd District, launched her campaign for the state senate seat on Sept. 19. State Rep. Pam Byrnes, a Lyndon Township Democrat representing District 52, is also a potential candidate in the senate race. Term limited, Byrnes has said she’ll announce her plans by year’s end.

About the writer: Judy McGovern lives in Ann Arbor. She has worked as a journalist here, and in Ohio, New York and several other states.

Rebekah Warren, current state representative from Ann Arbor, plans to officially announce her candidacy for Liz Brater's state senate seat on Sept. 19.

The year was 1992. Hecklers in Hamtramck threw broccoli at George H.W. Bush. Ross Perot got almost 19% of the presidential vote. And Michigan voters enacted term limits.

Fast forward to the present: Perot and Bush 41’s broccoli problem are largely forgotten, but term limits now shape elections for state office. Except in districts evenly enough divided between Democrats or Republicans that they might swing either way, it’s rare for an incumbent to face a serious challenge. Instead, political hopefuls wait for term limits to open the right slot.

That’s happening this election cycle with districts representing the Ann Arbor area. And jockeying is under way.

Next weekend, state Rep. Rebekah Warren (D-53rd District) will launch a campaign to succeed fellow Ann Arbor Democrat Liz Brater (D-18th District) in the Michigan Senate. A former state rep and former Ann Arbor mayor, Brater is term-limited and ineligible to run again for that seat.

Warren’s move will, in turn, trigger announcements from the Democrats who’ve politely waited for the two-term lawmaker to make her plans public before lining up to try and take her spot in the state House of Representatives.

Jeff Irwin and Ned Staebler are expected to enter the race for the 53rd District, which covers most of Ann Arbor and parts of Scio and Pittsfield townships. Irwin is a Washtenaw County commissioner representing a portion of Ann Arbor. Staebler is vice president of program administration at the Michigan Economic Development Corp. and an Ann Arbor resident.

In the heavily Democratic district representing the city of Ann Arbor, the candidate who wins in a primary can expect to sail through the general election in November.

State Rep. Pam Byrnes, who represents part of Ann Arbor and a large section of western Washtenaw County, is also considering a run for the 18th District state Senate seat.

State Senate Race

Still eligible to run for another term as state rep, Warren’s bid for the Senate sets up a potential Democratic primary in the 18th District, which represents Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti and the townships of Ann Arbor, Augusta, Dexter, Freedom, Lima, Lyndon, Northfield, Salem, Scio, Sharon, Superior, Sylvan, Webster and Ypsilanti.

Warren’s Washtenaw County colleague in the House – state Rep. Pam Byrnes of Lyndon Township – is serving her third and, under term limits, final term representing the 52nd District.

After rising to a leadership position as Speaker Pro Tempore, Byrnes says she’s seriously considering a run for the same 18th District Senate seat, but has yet to make a decision.

“Who knows what other opportunities might come up,” says Byrnes, who unexpectedly finds herself chairing a committee on a controversial plan for overhauling the health care system for public employees. “I’ll make a decision by the end of the year.”

Candidates have until May 2010 to file petitions to run for office.

For her part, Warren says the decision to seek the Senate seat stems from frustration over legislation that’s died in that chamber.

“I’ve had success getting legislation through the House and Senate and on to the governor’s desk,” says Warren, citing bills on Great Lakes water withdrawals and electronics-waste recycling. “But there’s been other legislation passed in the House that’s important to me – and to the county – that never even got a hearing in the Senate. We need different leadership there.

“I love what I do and think I’ve proven I can do a decent job for four or eight more years.”

Term limits enacted in 1992 set a cap of three two-year terms for state representatives and two four-year terms for the senate. Also limited to two four-year terms are the governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general.

Previous term-limited local lawmakers have been temporarily sidelined when the end of their terms did not mesh neatly with the terms of other offices.

Brater, who Warren hopes to succeed, was out of government for several years after leaving the House in 2000. She returned as a senator in 2002 when former state Sen. Alma Wheeler Smith was term-limited after two four-year terms.

Smith, Warren’s mother-in-law, sat out two years until term limits opened the seat in the 54th House district, which covers the eastern part of Washtenaw County. Smith won that seat but is term limited again – she is now a candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor.

Ruth Ann Jamnick, a former state rep from the 54th District and former Ypsilanti Township supervisor, has been mentioned as another possible candidate for the Senate seat. She could not be reached for comment.

53rd House District

Warren’s decision not to seek a third term in the House leaves an open field for that seat, which represents most of the city of Ann Arbor.

Ned Staebler, a Harvard grad with a master’s from the London School of Economics and Political Science, has deep political roots. His great grandfather was mayor of Ann Arbor from 1927-31, and his grandfather was a congressman from Michigan, a candidate for governor and an active Democrat. His father is married to former University of Michigan Regent Rebecca McGowan, a Democrat.

Staebler joined the state economic development agency in 2004, after previously working in finance – including a stint as an associate director with Bear Stearns International Ltd. in London, England. He declined to discuss the race, pending Warren’s official announcement, but has created a campaign committee to raise money.

Jeff Irwin, a Democrat elected to the county board in 1999 when he was still a University of Michigan student, likewise comes from a political family.

His father served as a state senator from the Upper Peninsula in the ’80s and later in the Granholm administration. And Irwin remembers as a child seeing lawmakers debate. “I watched (former Democratic state Sen.) Lana Pollack go toe-to-toe with (former Republican governor) John Engler and I knew who I wanted for my role model.”

Irwin worked on statewide and Great Lakes issues for the League of Conservation Voters Education Fund for six years and later on state environmental policy with the Michigan League of Conservation Voters for two years. He’s served as chairman of the Board of Commissioners and devotes his attention to county government full time.

He says he’s likely to enter the race and will make a decision by the end of the month.

52nd House District

When Pam Byrnes first won election in 2004, she took the 52th District Democratic, and voters in outlying Washtenaw County have increasingly been ready to back Democrats. Still, Republicans like county commissioner Mark Ouimet think they have a reasonable chance of winning back the House seat.

While he’s not ready to say he’s in the race, Ouimet acknowledges that he’s considering a run and notes that in 2008 he polled about as well as President Obama in his county commission district.

Ouimet says he’s put the decision aside until after a county budget is in place, probably in November and no later than December. Other potential Republican candidates appear to be deferring to Ouimet.

However, he’s not the only county commissioner eyeing the House seat.

Democrat Ken Schwartz says he has “one foot in the water” and is meeting with voters across the district to try and gauge support. “It’s been pretty positive, but I won’t make a final decision for a couple months.”

Schwartz was elected to the county board in 2007 and represents the 2nd District, which covers the northeastern part of the county. Ouimet was first elected in 2004 and represents the 1st District, which covers northwest Washtenaw County.

If Schwartz decides to run, he’ll likely find himself in a Democratic primary. Saline Mayor Gretchen Driskell’s name regularly comes up in discussion about the seat. “I know it does and I have been thinking about it,” says Driskell. Former Byrnes primary opponent Dr. Philip Zazove, a family practitioner, is among other potential candidates.

What about Hieftje?

Ann Arbor Mayor John Hieftje says he’s been asked whether he was interested in either the Senate race or the chance to run for the House seat being vacated by Warren.

His answer: He’ll decide next month.

Although he said in 2008 that the mayoral race could be his last, Hieftje seems less ready to leave the job today. “Things are very difficult for local government in Michigan and I feel a responsibility,” he says.

Pursuing the Senate seat would presumably present a challenge for the five-term mayor, who would run up against out-county voters and their views of Ann Arbor liberalism.

In the city limits, it would mean facing Warren, who dispatched Hieftje ally and city councilmember Leigh Greden in the 2004 2006 primary for the 53rd District.

A three-way race for that House seat might favor the highest profile candidate, but Hieftje has had sufficient time in office to disappoint some city voters, and both Staebler and Irwin could be expected to run hard.

In any of the potential Democratic primaries for state office, candidates will need to differentiate themselves.

“Anyone who represents Ann Arbor is going to vote the same way,” says Irwin, “pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-human services. The question is what else do you bring to the table.”

Primaries will be held in August 2010.

Other Races

State House campaigns by Irwin, Ouimet or Schwartz would create open seats on the county board, where commissioners will be elected to each of the 11 seats for two-year terms in 2010. Any move by Hieftje or Driskell would similarly open the respective mayor’s races next year. Warren’s husband – county commissioner Conan Smith, who is also chair of the Ann Arbor Democratic Party – is among several Democrats who have previously expressed interest in running for mayor of Ann Arbor, should Hieftje decide not to run.

The House seats in the 54th and 55th districts, which take in portions of Washtenaw County, are held by term-limited Democrats as well – Rep. Alma Wheeler-Smith and Rep. Kathy Angerer. Stay tuned for a Chronicle report on those races in the near future.